Australia is not facing a shortage of capital to fund the energy transition. Instead, investors are increasingly questioning whether projects can actually be delivered.
That is the central finding from Clean Energy Investor Group’s latest annual survey of Australia's largest renewable energy investors, which paints a picture of an industry still optimistic about Australia's long-term fundamentals, but increasingly frustrated by delays in transmission, planning approvals and policy certainty.
Just 8% of investors now believe Australia is on track to achieve the Federal Government's target of 82% renewable electricity by 2030, while 77% say the investment environment has deteriorated over the past year.
The survey suggests investor concerns have shifted decisively away from renewable technology and toward execution.
Transmission has overtaken planning approvals as the biggest barrier to investment, with grid connection delays, congestion and curtailment continuing to prevent projects from reaching market despite strong investor appetite.
Clean Energy Investor Group CEO Richie Merzian said the challenge is no longer attracting capital:
"Australia has been a top clean energy investment destination, but that confidence in our country is waning and trending down. Over three quarters of our clean energy investors say the Australian landscape has worsened in the last year. This needs to be addressed with action."
The report found investors are calling for faster transmission delivery, streamlined approvals and improved grid access rather than entirely new policy settings. Their priorities closely mirror the barriers preventing projects from progressing.
Perhaps the report's most striking finding is the growing disconnect between Australia's renewable energy ambitions and investor expectations.
Only 8% of respondents believe Australia will achieve the 82% renewable electricity target by 2030 under current settings, while 65% believe the target will not be met.
For Merzian, however, the outlook is not beyond repair.
"I want us to reach 82%. We're about halfway there, but things are trending in the wrong direction. If we want to hit that target, we need to build out our transmission, we need to improve planning processes, have competitive tax arrangements, and we need to make sure that state and federal governments are working together."
He added:
"All those things can be done. They're within our control, but we haven't seen that type of whole-of-government coordination and commitment just yet."
The report similarly concludes that stronger revenue certainty, faster transmission delivery and clearer signals around coal closures will all be required to convert available investment into operating renewable generation.
While transmission dominated the list of immediate barriers, investors also highlighted growing concern around policy certainty.
Certainty around coal-fired power station closures was ranked the second most effective policy reform for unlocking investment over the next three years, providing developers with clearer market signals for replacement renewable generation and storage.
The survey also identified tax settings as an emerging concern, with proposed changes affecting foreign resident capital gains tax ranking among investors' top challenges.
Merzian warned that governments should avoid creating additional uncertainty while attempting to accelerate the transition.
“Investors are losing patience with a system that isn’t delivering at pace, and creating additional barriers, like the proposed Capital Gains Tax on existing international clean energy investments. It's no wonder less than one in ten investors see Australia meeting its 2030 clean energy target.”
State rankings also shifted. New South Wales retained its position as Australia's most attractive renewable investment destination despite ongoing planning challenges. Queensland remained second, while Western Australia rose two places to third as greater transmission certainty improved investor confidence. Victoria slipped to fourth amid ongoing transmission delays and curtailment concerns.
Against that backdrop, data centres emerged as the clearest upside. Whilst they are viewed as a growth engine, there is an important caveat: they must not delay coal closures.
Investors identified one major opportunity.
An overwhelming 92% believe growing electricity demand from data centres will help unlock the next wave of renewable energy investment, provided new demand is matched with additional renewable generation and storage rather than existing supply.
Merzian said rapidly growing electricity demand could strengthen project economics rather than undermine them.
"Data centres present a real opportunity for unlocking a new wave of clean energy investment, with nine in ten investors backing the new demand it brings. However, data centres must not be used as an excuse to delay coal power closures, which investors want to see retired on time."
The report argues that long-term power purchase agreements from data centre operators could provide the revenue certainty needed to underwrite additional renewable generation and storage projects.
Ultimately, the message from investors is consistent. Australia continues to attract global clean energy capital, but maintaining that advantage will depend less on announcing new ambitions and more on delivering the infrastructure, policy certainty and project approvals needed to turn investment into completed renewable energy projects.