Delegates at COP30 in Belém did not need reminding that the world is getting hotter and more volatile. They felt it. On the second day of the summit, heavy Amazonian rain overwhelmed drains and sent water gushing into parts of the venue. A few days later, an electrical fault sparked a fire in another section, briefly disrupting the schedule and sending a haze across the walkway. These dramatic moments served as a reminder of what climate change can bring to us if we do not take action seriously.
“The political centre of gravity shifted”
During the two-week climate negotiations at COP30, there was genuine movement on fossil-fuel transition, even though the formal decision text (the Belém Package) avoided the decisive language many had hoped for on phasing out fossil fuels. Outside the core text, however, the political centre of gravity shifted. A group of countries launched a voluntary ministerial coalition to develop fossil-fuel transition roadmaps, providing a platform for aligning national approaches to reducing fossil dependence. Australia also joined a related ministerial declaration signalling the need to shift energy systems and export portfolios away from fossil fuels. None of this is binding, but together these signals show clearly where markets and investment are heading.
For Australia, the shift is not theoretical. The country’s largest coal customers are already redrawing their energy and industrial plans. At COP30, South Korea, one of Australia’s major coal importers, announced that it will phase out coal-fired power by 2040. What once seemed a distant eventuality now has a timetable. South Korea’s decision reflects not only climate ambition but also a hard industrial calculus: its steelmakers, shipbuilders, battery giants and chemical producers all need to decarbonise to maintain export competitiveness. The era of bilateral trade defined by fossil fuels is drawing to a close.
As the world moves toward tighter constraints on fossil fuels, new opportunities are emerging in renewable-linked commodity trade, and Australia’s traditional energy customers are beginning to reappear as potential partners, investors and standard-setters in this transition. South Korea, Japan and China are no longer just customers. They are emerging as co-developers, co-investors and architects of the industrial systems that will redefine global trade.
“Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is steadily tightening expectations for embedded emissions”
COP30 reflected this clearly. While the negotiations did not produce new UNFCCC rules for green steel or hydrogen, industry coalitions made significant progress. A landmark example was the signing of a memorandum of understanding between three major initiatives: ResponsibleSteel, the European Low Emission Steel Standard (LESS), and China’s Clean and Low-Carbon Steel Framework, a voluntary initiative developed under the guidance of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) and linked to China’s evolving ETS implementation for the steel sector. The MoU commits them to work toward common approaches for defining, measuring and verifying low-emission and near-zero steel. Together, the companies and associations participating in these initiatives represent roughly 60 percent of global steel output, giving this emerging convergence substantial influence over future market access, trade rules and investment decisions. At the same time, Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism is steadily tightening expectations for embedded emissions in steel, cement and other materials.
For Australia, the world’s largest exporter of iron ore, this is a decisive development. It is no longer possible to imagine an “Australian definition” of green steel or green iron. Standards emerging from Asia and Europe will determine what counts as low-emission, what qualifies for preferential trade treatment, and what kinds of projects investors are willing to back. Any Australian green-iron or hydrogen project that does not align with this rapidly forming international architecture will struggle for finance.
“Water security, climate-resilient infrastructure and genuine First Nations leadership are no longer side considerations”
COP30 also brought nature and resilience into sharper focus. The Brazilian presidency emphasised forests, biodiversity and nature-positive development throughout the summit. The final decision included a call to at least triple adaptation finance by 2035, a political signal, not a binding commitment, but a significant shift. It highlights the reality that future climate finance will prioritise projects that combine emissions reduction with resilience, community wellbeing and ecological protection. For Australia’s emerging green-export hubs, that means water security, climate-resilient infrastructure and genuine First Nations leadership are no longer side considerations but core investment criteria.
This all lands as Australia prepares for an elevated diplomatic role ahead of COP31. Turkey will host next year’s summit, but Australia has secured a prominent position in shaping the negotiation and technical agenda. It gives Canberra unusual influence, and sharpens the spotlight on its domestic choices. A country guiding global discussions on industrial transition cannot simultaneously expand long-lived fossil-fuel export infrastructure without eroding its credibility. Nor can it hope to anchor new clean-industry supply chains without addressing transmission bottlenecks, planning delays and certification gaps at home.
“The world Australia exports into is being remade faster than many realise”
The deeper lesson of COP30 is that the world Australia exports into is being remade faster than many realise. Climate extremes are intensifying. Trading partners are setting end-dates for fossil fuels. Standards for low-emission materials are converging. Finance is tilting toward projects that protect nature and communities, not just cut emissions. And geopolitical competition is turning clean-industrial supply chains into strategic assets.
The floods and fires of Belém were more than inconveniences. They were previews of the world in which Australia must now build its economic future. The country stands at a fork in the road. It can treat these signals as warnings, to cling defensively to legacy exports, or as the clearest opportunity in decades to lead in the industries that the world is aligning around.
Water and fire defined COP30. Whether they define Australia’s next decade will depend on how boldly it responds.