Politics, policy, and practicality: A gas industry perspective

At the 2025 Australian Domestic Gas Outlook (ADGO) conference, a central panel discussion tackled one of the most politically fraught and technically complex questions facing the country’s energy system: will regulatory pressure on the gas sector squeeze supply to such a point that it cannot be relied on as a transition fuel?

The panel session, titled Politics, policy, and practicality: When being right isn’t enough, explored the tension between the gas industry’s call for long-term investment certainty and the shifting political, social, and environmental forces that are reshaping its future role.

Moderated by MST Financial’s Saul Kavonic, the panel brought together four experienced voices in energy and government: Joel Fitzgibbon (former Labor minister), Bill Johnston (former WA energy minister), Ying Luo (Chief Adviser, Amplitude Energy), and Nicole Manison (former Deputy Chief Minister of the Northern Territory).

While the discussion largely reflected a pro-gas viewpoint, panellists raised several broader issues that intersect with challenges across the energy sector — around energy security, political volatility, and public trust.

The shifting political landscape

Gas continues to play a role in stabilising the grid as renewable penetration increases. However, panellists argued that current policy settings do not sufficiently acknowledge this contribution.

The discussion occurred against a backdrop of mounting regulatory uncertainty for the gas sector, especially on Australia’s east coast. Panellists cited several recent interventions — including the introduction of a wholesale gas price cap, amendments to the Safeguard Mechanism, and litigation funded by public entities — as contributing to a perception of increased sovereign risk, making Australia seem less stable or reliable as an investment environment, especially for large capital-intensive projects like gas developments.

The gas industry has been slow to adapt to shifting political and public sentiment, with an increasingly more progressive electorate and the major parties repositioning themselves accordingly.

Western Australia stands as a notable exception with gas policies that enable a stable investment environment — albeit one that has evolved under different market conditions.

In what Kavonic called a “political crisis”, governments are under pressure to restrict or delay new approvals amidst a growing mismatch between political signals, regulatory execution, and investment expectations.

Both Johnston and Fitzgibbon warned against retrospective interventions such as applying new controls to uncontracted gas volumes, cautioning that they could deter investment by undermining regulatory confidence. “Changing the rules mid-game” was a recurring concern among the panellists.

Public support and regional equity

Another recurring theme was the growing pressure on the gas sector to earn and maintain a social licence to operate, particularly in regions affected by extraction and infrastructure. This theme has gained prominence as community opposition and environmental activism has intensified.

Manison, speaking from her experience in the Northern Territory, said gas-producing regions continue to benefit from the presence of the industry, with “well-paid, highly skilled jobs” and local investment in services, stressing that “the local community really sees the benefits”.

In areas like the Beetaloo Basin, where Tamboran Resources is the largest acreage holder, local residents expect direct returns — Manison argued that gas development could support broader economic and social goals, particularly in remote regions with limited financial opportunities.

That said, the gap between localised support and broader political contestation remains a challenge. Luo noted that while regional populations may directly benefit from gas activity, urban electorates — often more influential in national policy debates — are less exposed to gas production and more likely to support phase-out narratives.

Manison also pointed to the increasing sophistication of climate advocacy campaigns as a strategic challenge for the sector, suggesting that gas companies need to more clearly communicate their role in the energy transition if they are to maintain public support.

Alternative technologies: Hydrogen’s slow ramp-up

As questions continue about gas’s long-term viability, green hydrogen is frequently proposed as a cleaner substitute. Yet Luo, drawing from her experience leading strategic development at Amplitude Energy, argued that current hydrogen infrastructure is not yet positioned to displace gas at scale. The Central Queensland Hydrogen Project (CQ-H2), one of the largest green hydrogen projects to reach final investment decision in Australia, will supply only 0.3 terajoules per day — a fraction of daily domestic demand.

[Central Queensland Hydrogen Project (CQ-H2)]

Demand-side uptake remains limited as well. A show-of-hands poll during the session revealed only three attendees actively procuring green hydrogen. Despite bullish long-term forecasts, the consensus on the panel was that hydrogen is unlikely to meet firming and industrial energy needs in the short term.

Transitional role or terminal decline?

The panel reinforced that the future of gas in Australia is shaped as much by political and social dynamics as by emissions targets and market forces.

While all panellists opposed the notion of an immediate phase-out, there was broad agreement that gas’s role must evolve within a carbon-constrained system.

Whether gas retains a strategic role as a bridging fuel or becomes marginalised as stranded infrastructure will depend on a combination of factors — including community engagement, policy coherence, and the pace of clean technology deployment.

For the time being, Manison, Johnston, and Fitzgibbon called for greater policy alignment and faster permitting processes to reduce uncertainty and support supply continuity.

Luo emphasised better integration between fossil and clean energy sectors, calling for pragmatic, multi-technology strategies over ideological divides.

The discussion underscored a central tension in Australia’s energy transition: balancing long-term decarbonisation with near-term reliability and economic resilience.

As political conditions evolve, the outcome for gas may hinge less on its technical utility and more on how effectively its proponents adapt to a shifting policy and public landscape.